Renewal-Risk Radar Playbook 2026
Renewals go best when the account already looks like your customers who renewed. From 90 days out, this play compares every renewing account with them each week – usage and revenue – checks the records, and puts one move on the account in your CRM: an expansion look, a value review, a save plan with the CSM – or no move, with the reason noted.
The customers who already renewed show you what a good renewal looks like 90 days out: how many people were active, how deeply they used the product, and what they paid. A lot of your renewing accounts look just like that – and for those, the renewal call is the natural place to bring up more.
This play compares every account renewing in the next 90 days with those renewers each week, usage and revenue both, and puts one move on the account record: an expansion look, a value review, a save plan, or no move. It works the renewals list from the weekly check. Accounts further out whose gap is widening belong to the churn-risk save; forecast accuracy is the forecast play.
Measure it on how many renewing accounts are back on the benchmark before the date, expansion at the renewal date, and gross revenue retention.
How it works10 steps
01SignalCompare each renewing account with customers who renewed
Build the benchmark once, refresh it quarterly:
- Comparison customers: same segment (plan tier, size band), renewed at the same or higher revenue in the last 18 months (default). Aim for 20; with fewer, label it low confidence.
- Their usage 90 days before renewal: active users as a share of seats paid (active means used in three of the last four weeks), and the core action per active user per week – the action your product is bought for.
- Their revenue: ARR at renewal, and the median ARR of those who renewed up.
- The pattern: the median and the lowest quarter (25th percentile) of each usage measure. Your CS lead approves it.
Each week, compare every account renewing inside 90 days with the renewers, not with its own past: an account can hold steady against last year and still sit well below the customers who renewed. Say an account pays $30,000 and renews in 90 days. Renewers had 70% of seats active at this point; it has 45%. That gap sits on a $30,000 renewal – a comparison, not a forecast. (The numbers are illustrative.)
Ninety days is a default; long enterprise cycles may want 180. Run it as a weekly saved query in PostHog, Amplitude or Mixpanel, with each account's renewal date loaded from the CRM, or a spreadsheet. Under about a hundred accounts, do it by hand.
02ScoreCheck the records before calling it a gap
- Gap & what it's worth: each usage measure against the renewers' median, beside the renewal ARR.
- Records complete? Missing users, a new workspace or an SSO change can hide real use. Ask the account owner before you trust a drop.
- Tickets & billing: open escalations and failed payments in the last 90 days.
- Budget or org changes: 90 days of CRM notes and the renewal stage. A new executive or a departed champion changes the plan.
03DecisionPut each account in one lane
Apply the rules in this order. Defaults; tune them:
- Gap: either usage measure in the renewers' lowest quarter, or both below the median.
- Watch: one measure below the median, the champion not active in 30 days, or an open escalation or failed payment.
- On benchmark: everything else, including a drop the records explain (a data problem, a known seasonal dip).
Renewal already signed, or a move still inside its review window? Set No move and skip the lanes.
04DecisionOn benchmark: look for room to grow, or leave it alone
Room to grow means usage at or above the renewers' median and ARR below the median of those who renewed up, or active users above seats paid. Everything else on benchmark is left alone.
05ActionDraft an expansion look for the renewal call
The expansion note below, attached to the renewal deal. Seats and add-ons follow the seat and add-on play; a bigger plan follows the PQL handoff.
06ActionLeave it alone, and write down why
Set Recommended move to No move, write the reason in one line, and set Review date to the next check. A healthy renewal needs a clean call, not extra outreach. The leave-it-alone play covers the decision in full.
07ActionDraft a value review for a watch account
The value review invite below, anchored on the one measure that slipped. Sixty days early it reads as service; at the renewal it can turn into a discount conversation. Log what you learn on the record – if the account moves to the gap lane, the save plan needs it.
08ActionDraft a save plan for the AM and CSM
The save plan brief below: what fell short of the renewers, the executive sponsor, a success plan keyed to what declined, and a weekly check-in until the account is back on benchmark or the renewal closes.
09Human stepYour team decides and runs the move
The AM or CSM runs it as drafted, changes it, or passes, and owns every customer conversation. Before acting, record the success measure and the review date: the account back on benchmark is progress; the renewal, flat or up, is the result. Once a lane's drafts have been right for a few weeks, your team can choose to automate it – the value review invite is a good first candidate.
10OutcomeReview what changed, then sharpen the benchmark
Eight weeks on, record whether the gap is closing and what else played a part. If nothing moved, change the move, stop it, or give it time. At the renewal, record the result. Each quarter, compare the lanes with what happened: on-benchmark accounts that didn't renew, and gap accounts that renewed untouched, both mean the benchmark needs work. The gap line will flag some customers who renew: each quarter, report how many renewers and how many leavers crossed either threshold, with the counts.
Setup and templates
Sources: active users, seats and the core action from a saved query in PostHog, Amplitude or Mixpanel; renewal date, ARR, stage, notes and the champion contact from the CRM; failed payments from billing; escalations from your support tool. By hand: a weekly export of each into one spreadsheet, one row per renewing account. Account-level numbers need your analytics tool's account add-on (group analytics in PostHog, Accounts in Amplitude, Group Analytics in Mixpanel) and a group call in your app. Save the query, then subscribe to it (in Amplitude, add it to a dashboard and subscribe to that) so the result lands in your inbox or Slack on the schedule you set. PostHog can sync HubSpot or Salesforce into its data warehouse and join it in SQL. In Amplitude or Mixpanel, load renewal dates as account properties (Amplitude: the Salesforce integration or Group Identify API; Mixpanel: a warehouse connector).
Company properties in HubSpot (Starter or above; free HubSpot allows 10 custom properties in total), or your CRM's account object:
| Property | Type | Filled by |
|---|---|---|
| Renewal date | Date picker | CRM |
| Active seats vs renewers | Number (% of benchmark median) | Weekly check |
| Core action vs renewers | Number (% of benchmark median) | Weekly check |
| Champion last active | Date picker | Weekly check |
| Renewal lane | Dropdown select: On benchmark · Watch · Gap | Weekly check |
| Recommended move | Dropdown select: Expansion look · Value review · Save plan · No move | Weekly check |
| Move reason | Single-line text | Weekly check |
| Success measure | Single-line text | Account owner |
| Review date | Date picker | Weekly check, then account owner |
| Review result | Dropdown select: Back on benchmark · Gap closing · No change · Stopped | Account owner |
| Renewal result | Dropdown select: Renewed up · Renewed flat · Renewed down · Didn't renew | Account owner |
The automation here uses HubSpot workflows (any Professional hub). On Free or Starter, run the same saved view and create the tasks by hand. The weekly list is a saved view: Renewal date is less than 90 days from now, Recommended move is known and Review date is this week or overdue. In HubSpot that's two filter groups: Review date is This week, or Review date is before Today. Each move creates a task for the owner, "Renewal: [move]", with the draft in the body. On Pipedrive, use a date-trigger automation to flag accounts 90 days out.
Expansion look (note on the renewal deal): [core action] at [x]% of renewers · [active users] active on [seats] seats · renewers your size who renewed up added [what] · the ask: [seats, add-on or plan] from [renewal date].
Value review invite (to the champion):
Hi [name] – ahead of your renewal on [date], I'd like to check [product] is still doing the job for your team. [Measure] has changed since [month] – has something shifted in how the team works? Thirty minutes to go through it together would help us both.
Save plan brief (AM and CSM): what fell short of the renewers, by measure · what the records explain · the executive sponsor · the success plan and the milestone for each week · the weekly check-in · the forecast update.
No move: "No move – [reason]. Recheck [date]."
How Accoil fits
Accoil is a customer-success consultancy with our own tooling, and this is a play we run with you, not for you. We build the benchmark from your renewed customers with your team, and you approve it. Every week we check every renewing account in the agreed segment, and the recommended move and its evidence land on the account record in your CRM – we recommend HubSpot – at a pace your team can actually run. Your team makes every call. Nobody from Accoil contacts your customers. After the agreed window we review what changed together, and you keep the playbook, the benchmark and the analysis.
Running it yourself? Swap HubSpot for Salesforce or Pipedrive. The play stays the same. On Salesforce, the field writes need API access (Enterprise and up, or an add-on on Professional). On Pipedrive, automations and date triggers need the Growth plan.
Thirty minutes with Kate, Simon or Peter on one example segment: what a successful customer looks like, where the gaps are, and whether there's work worth doing this quarter.
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